Texas hurricane odds have fallen from 27% to 13% since April, but experts say peak hurricane season still looms, despite a quieter Atlantic forecast.

Researchers estimate that total Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026 will amount to approximately 40 percent of the 1991-2020 average. By comparison, activity during the 2025 season reached approximately 105 percent of the historical average.

A Florida company is offering private hurricane evacuations for $1,250 a year, promising flights out of the state before major storms hit.

The third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season historically develops around Aug. 3, according to NOAA. The first hurricane tends to form around Aug. 11, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September, according to NOAA.

When the next hurricane heads toward Florida, some people won’t join the lines of traffic slowly snaking out of neighborhoods, they won’t need to worry about gas, or where they should head. Instead, they will be swiftly flown out of state on a privately hired airplane.

The peak of hurricane season is little more than a month away, and the front page of the National Hurricane Center website prominently displays a blank map of the Atlantic Ocean that says “Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.

Current forecasts call for Tropical Storm Bertha to strengthen slightly today, July 21. See expected impacts in Florida from Tropical Storm Bertha. Are you prepared for the 2026 hurricane season? It's not too late to assemble your kit.

Forecasters say El Niño is expected to play a major role.